Expected Goals (xG)
Sum of scoring probabilities of every chance a team creates.
Formula
Variables
Example
Shots of 0.1+0.3+0.6 xG: total xG = 1.0
How it works
Expected goals (xG) measures how many goals a team would be expected to score from the chances it created, based on the likelihood of each shot becoming a goal. It works by adding the scoring probability of each individual chance, so a team with many low-quality shots can have the same xG as a team with fewer high-quality shots. This makes xG a better indicator of chance quality than raw shot counts alone.
When to use it
Use xG when you want to compare attacking performance beyond just goals scored, such as in match analysis, team scouting, or evaluating finishing over a season. It is especially useful for spotting whether a team created good chances but was unlucky, or scored more than expected from weaker chances.
Worked example, step by step
A team creates 4 chances with scoring probabilities of 0.05, 0.12, 0.25, and 0.40 xG = 0.05 + 0.12 + 0.25 + 0.40 xG = 0.82 So the team’s expected goals for the match is 0.82, meaning those chances would be expected to produce just under 1 goal on average.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Adding only the shots on target instead of all shot probabilities
- Treating xG as the actual number of goals rather than an average expectation
- Using percentages incorrectly, such as adding 5 + 12 + 25 + 40 instead of 0.05 + 0.12 + 0.25 + 0.40
Did You Know?
xG was popularised around 2012 and now appears on live TV broadcasts to judge who 'deserved' to win.
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