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Pythagorean Expectation

Predicts a team's win rate from points scored and allowed.

Formula

W%=PF2PF2+PA2W\% = \frac{PF^2}{PF^2 + PA^2}

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Variables

W\%Expected win rate
PFPoints for
PAPoints against

Example

PF=800, PA=700: W% = 640000/(640000+490000) ≈ 0.566

Did You Know?

Bill James invented this for baseball; the exponent varies by sport (2 for baseball, ~13.9 for basketball).

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