Sports & Motion Analytics
Intermediate

Elo Expected Score

Probability player A beats player B given their ratings.

Formula

E=11+10(Rb−Ra)/400E = \frac{1}{1 + 10^{(R_b - R_a)/400}}

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Variables

EExpected score for A
R_aRating of A
R_bRating of B

Example

R_a=1800, R_b=1600: E = 1/(1+10^{-0.5}) ≈ 0.76

Did You Know?

A 400-point Elo gap means the favourite is expected to win about 91% of the time.

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