Loss Reserve
Money set aside for claims incurred but not yet fully paid.
Formula
Variables
Example
Ultimate $12M, paid $8M: R = $4M
How it works
This formula estimates the amount that still needs to be held for claims that have already happened but have not yet been fully settled. It works because the reserve is the gap between the insurer’s best estimate of the final total claim cost and the amount already paid out; what remains unpaid is the liability still on the books. In practice, that remaining amount may include both case reserves on reported claims and allowances for claims that have occurred but are not yet reported.
When to use it
Use this when valuing outstanding insurance liabilities at a point in time, especially in reserving for property, casualty, and liability lines. It is also useful in financial reporting and solvency analysis when comparing expected ultimate losses with current cumulative payments.
Worked example, step by step
Suppose an insurer estimates the ultimate cost of a claim portfolio will be $18.6 million. Claims paid so far are $13.2 million. Apply the formula: R = Ĉ - C_paid R = 18.6 - 13.2 R = 5.4 So the loss reserve is $5.4 million.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Subtracting reported claims instead of paid claims when the formula is specifically based on payments made so far
- Using an ultimate estimate that has not been adjusted for claim handling expenses if those are meant to be included in the reserve basis
- Forgetting that a negative result indicates the estimate is too low or the claim portfolio is overpaid, not a normal reserve amount
Did You Know?
Under-reserving has sunk many insurers — estimating future claims is one of the actuary's hardest jobs.
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IntermediateExpected claim cost per policy: frequency times severity.
Gross Premium
IntermediatePremium that covers claims plus an expense/profit load.
Loss Ratio
BasicClaims paid divided by premiums earned.
Combined Ratio
IntermediateTotal cost ratio: losses plus expenses vs premium.
Expected Value of a Claim
BasicProbability-weighted average of possible claim amounts.
Present Value of an Annuity
IntermediateValue today of a stream of future payments.